The world is confronting the "most complex" geopolitical situation witnessed in decades, the head of the World Economic Forum warned Tuesday, as global leaders gathered in China amid mounting concerns over armed conflict, economic stagnation, and environmental collapse.
"It is the most complex geopolitical and geo-economic backdrop we've seen in decades," WEF President and CEO Borge Brende told AFP ahead of the organization's meeting in Tianjin. The stark assessment comes as the Forum's latest Global Risks Report identified state-based armed conflict as the most pressing immediate threat facing the world in 2025, marking a dramatic shift from previous years when the risk barely registered among top concerns.
The WEF's annual risk survey, which canvassed over 900 global experts, found that nearly a quarter of respondents ranked state-based armed conflict as the most severe risk for 202512. The finding reflects escalating tensions worldwide, from the Iran-Israel conflict to ongoing trade disputes that have battered the global economy.
Extreme weather events and misinformation campaigns round out the top three immediate risks, with more than half of survey respondents characterizing the next two years as "unsettled"1. The assessment paints a picture of a world grappling with multiple, interconnected crises that threaten to compound one another.
The warning comes as international financial institutions have begun cutting growth projections. The World Bank reduced its global growth forecast from 2.7 percent to 2.3 percent this year, following a similar reduction by the International Monetary Fund1.
"If we are not able to revive growth again, we can unfortunately see a decade of lower growth," Brende cautioned1. The economic concerns have intensified as trade tensions reshape global commerce, with Brende noting that "the traditional globalisation we saw is now changed into a different system."
Despite immediate geopolitical concerns, environmental threats continue to dominate long-term risk assessments. Five of the ten most severe risks projected for 2035 are environmental, including extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth's systems12.
The persistence of environmental concerns reflects two decades of consistent warnings from the Forum. As the World Meteorological Organization noted, 2024 was the warmest year on record, capping the ten warmest years in recorded history2.
"There is no silver bullet to address these interconnected crises, but we must act now to avoid catastrophic consequences in the future," said Mark Elsner, head of the Global Risks Initiative at the World Economic Forum3.
