Citi analysts on Monday raised their price target for Nvidia to $190 from $180, betting the chip giant will capture a larger share of an expanding artificial intelligence market driven by governments racing to build sovereign AI infrastructure.
The upgrade from analyst Atif Malik reflects growing confidence in what the bank calls a "global gold rush" for AI capabilities, with Nvidia positioned at the center of deals spanning multiple continents. The new target implies roughly 19% upside from current trading levels and comes as the company approaches a $4 trillion market capitalization.
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Citi now expects the total addressable market for AI data center semiconductors to reach $563 billion by 2028, up 13% from its previous $500 billion estimate12. The firm also revised its networking market forecast to $119 billion from $90 billion, citing demand for larger AI training clusters23.
"We model total 2028 data center semis AI TAM to now reach $563B," Malik wrote in a research note, highlighting that sovereign AI investments are already contributing "billions of dollars in 2025" and are expected to accelerate further23.
The bank's updated valuation uses a consistent 30x price-to-earnings multiple on Citi's raised fiscal 2028 earnings per share estimate of $6.372. Malik expects Nvidia's Blackwell platform rollout to support gross margin expansion to the mid-70% range13.
The upgrade centers on what Citi calls unprecedented government investment in national AI infrastructure. According to the bank, Nvidia is "involved in essentially every sovereign deal" as countries compete to develop independent AI capabilities12.
Last month, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced multiple sovereign AI partnerships during a European tour that included stops in the United Kingdom, France and Germany2. The company also recently partnered with Humain, an AI subsidiary of Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund2.
Bank of America analysts have said they expect "every major country" to invest in sovereign AI, while Oppenheimer estimates the global sovereign AI market could reach $1.5 trillion, including $120 billion in Europe2.
Nvidia shares ended last week at a record high but were trading slightly lower Monday1. The company reported $39.3 billion in revenue for its fourth quarter, up 78% year-over-year, with its data center segment accounting for roughly 60% of total revenue23.
At Nvidia's recent Generative AI conference, participants discussed a potential benchmark of one supercomputer or 10,000 GPUs per 100,000 employees4. "We're going to have to continue to scale as demand is quite high, and customers are anxious and impatient to get their Blackwell systems," Huang said during the company's recent earnings call5.
